morningstar on spacex ipo

Why We Think the SpaceX IPO Is Overvalued | Morningstar

it’s not a long read. i’d love to see the research inputs.

How Do the Scenarios Add Up to the Fair Value Estimate?

• We give the optimistic Moonshot scenario a 7% chance of happening. This represents the combined probability that Starship is reusable 85% of the time and orbital data centers scale well commercially. This scenario would add $108 to our fair value estimate, unweighted, and it lifts the final result by $7.56 per share.
• We assign the No Go scenario a 43% chance of happening, meaning even if Starship is successful, orbital AI data centers may not be, which would detract $6.20 from our fair value estimate on its own, and it weighs on the average by $2.67.
• We deem the Minimum Viable Product scenario as most likely (though far from guaranteed). It is worth $23.50, adding $11.75 to the fair value weighted at 50% probability.

i rarely see/hear anyone tackle the space-based data center bits in anything resembling an adult conversation. the boosterism on this is mindblowing. this is a rare exception and still does a fair amount of investor-class handwaving.