The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

definitely worth the read. i don’t think mr. bayes has received so much popular love since legions of system administrators installed the spamassassin i the late 90s and we started to embrace bayesian statistics in a hidden but meaningful and practical manner in our daily lives.

a fun run through the application of statistics in novel and non-novel applications. also a good reminder to continuously reduce your biases. makes you wonder how many folks accept hedgehog-ism as a default setting.